And the Oscar goes to… My 2013 predictions

Getting snubbed for a directing nom by the Academy Awards might have been the best thing to happen to Ben Affleck. He just picked up the BAFTA to keep his Golden Globe and DGA awards company. So not being in the mix for the directing prize may be one of the more interesting races in a so-so year of nominations.

Some of my top 10 films of 2012 are scattered among the nominations. We’re off, my predictions for the high-visibility categories, based on the Oscar 2013 nominations, are:

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Documentary feature: The buzz is right on, Searching for Sugar Man.

Foreign language film: Love is all there is – the powerful Amour.

Actress in a supporting role: Anne Hathaway seems to have it locked up. Didn’t see Les Mis, won’t ever see Les Mis – maybe she deserves it. Of the nominees, I would have gone with Helen Hunt.

Actor in a supporting role: With Lincoln slowing in the stretch, Tommy Lee Jones may be winding down as favorite (remember the image of him not being amused at the Globes). Christoph Waltz’s stock is rising. Good performance, but Leonardo DiCaprio was overlooked. He deserved the nod and the award for Django Unchained in the supporting actor role. I’m torn, TLJ or CW? I’m going with Christoph Waltz.

Actress in a leading role: Of the nominees, Emmanuelle Riva deserves it for a beautiful, heart-breakingly truthful performance of a dying woman fighting to keep her dignity in Amour. But I doubt that the Academy will award her as the BAFTAs did. Then it’s down to the brash Jennifer Lawrence and self-described sideliner Jessica Chastain. I’m on the fence here, but since Lawrence picked up the Golden Globe, she may have the edge for Oscar. I’m ticking her box. (Note: I’m happy to say that it was a strong year for women’s performances – all the nominees are winners.)

Actor in a leading role: Three little words, Daniel Day-Lewis. Of the nominees, Joaquim Phoenix and Denzel Washington gave terrific performances as well. John Hawkes was sadly ignored for a brilliant performance in The Sessions.

Directing: With Affleck and Kathryn Bigelow out of the mix, this and best film are the more interesting categories. Michael Haneke earned it for Amour out of this lot, and since this category has become controversial, could Beasts’ newcomer Benh Zeitlin be the surprise winner of the bunch? Don’t think so. I’m going with Steven Spielberg.

Best Picture: All roads seem to lead to Argo. But will the director/picture nods split? This year they would have to. Amour will most likely win best foreign film, so I’d take that out of the mix. Beasts of the Southern Wild’s prize is the nomination. I’d also eliminate Zero Dark Thirty (no Bigelow, and essentially no previous wins this year). Les Misérables (other than Hathaway’s win) and Life of Pi may win tech awards. Quentin Tarantino will most likely win for Django Unchained’s original screenplay (and rightly so), not for best film. Silver Linings Playbook was like a Lifetime movie to me, and not that strong a film. So that leaves Argo’s main competition as Lincoln, which will win for best adapted screenplay. If Steven Spielberg wins for directing, small chance that Lincoln will follow for film. Whoa – with all of that said, I’m predicting Argo.

But hey, what do I know? I would love to be surprised on 24 february. How do I stack up against your picks?

Cast your votes in my ZipPolls, or online with the NYTimes ballot or LATimes ballot and see how well you do.

And for the documentary short, this one is a winner, Paperman. Enjoy!

Images: IMBD character stills / film posters, © each respective film.

2 Responses to “And the Oscar goes to… My 2013 predictions”

  1. Kay Says:

    Chastain won the globe too in the drama category.

  2. Janet Giampietro Says:

    Hello Kay:

    Yes, you’re right. I forgot that the Globe separates the comedy/drama categories. I’m still sticking with Lawrence. What about you?

    Thanks for the comment.

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