Oscar race takes shape, predictions wanted

fun and games, humor, 2011 academy awards ballot, 2011 oscar race and predictions, musings on the 2011 academy awardsSuperbowl Sunday seemed the appropriate time to finally get this Academy Award blog together. It’s the perfect alternative to football (for many of us.)

Take out your Magic Eight Ball, Ouija Board, tarot cards or any other predictor of your liking. It’s that time of the year to predict the Oscar® winners. If you’d like to play along nondigitally, here’s an old-fashioned-multiple-choice-color-in the-circle-and-manually-add-up-your-score alternative download.

Here’s the way I see the race shaping up now, but these opinions may shift after the BAFTAs are given out next week. I’m not committing pencil to paper yet.

>> BEST PICTURE

Three months ago, The Social Network had best picture, hands down. But The King’s Speech (TKS) has made huge inroads thanks to the Weinstein PR machine. TKS also won many of the guild awards whose members are academy voters. I’m on the fence.
Status: Still too early to call.

>> BEST ACTOR

Colin Firth, all the way. He missed out last year for The Single Man, he’s been around for a long time with little award recognition, he’s well respected and he’s appeared in many Miramax and Weinstein films over the years. George VI is a real person overcoming an affliction. Academy voters love that. Besides, who doesn’t want to see the definitive Mr Darcy win an Oscar?
Status: I’m sticking with this call.

>> BEST ACTRESS

The race is between Natalie Portman and Annette Bening. Since I don’t foresee Black Swan winning best picture, the film will be rewarded with best actress award. Bening is a four-time nominee and it would seem to be her time, but Portman is young,  beloved in the Hollywood community, and Black Swan is a higher profile film than The Kids Are All Right. I say it’s Portman’s year.
Status: Today’s theory, but, tomorrow is another day.

For a more scientific analysis of the front runners, take a look at this NYTimes piece.

Upcoming: Stay tuned for the polls, coming this week, and ahead, my Will Win/Should Win predictions.

Image: Captured from the Mattel Magic Eight Ball Demo.

2 Responses to “Oscar race takes shape, predictions wanted”

  1. lg Says:

    Got to agree that the BAFTAs will be a better indicator of the Academy’s choices. I’m also awaiting your will win/should win post to cast my votes. Your selections for Best Actor and Best Actress are mine, as well — I’ll wait to state my case for those I think will/should win.

    The Social Network will not win for Best picture. Youth and the film’s content matter are not the types of things rewarded by Oscar voters. However, I wonder if True Grit is a dark horse contender. . .

  2. Janet Giampietro Says:

    I don’t know, I’m still thinking The Social Network may pull it off. True Grit would truly be a dark horse (pun pun).

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